Trump, Sept. 2020: "We're going to win four more years in the White House. And then after that, we'll negotiate, right? Because we're probably, based on the way we were treated, we're probably entitled to another four after that."
Gerrymander districts
Texas Republicans passed a new, aggressively gerrymandered congressional map over the weekend, giving their party the chance to win 5 additional seats in next year’s election. If the plan is upheld by the courts, the state’s congressional delegation will be roughly 80% Republican and 20% Democrats—even though Trump carried Texas with only 56% of the vote in 2024.
In closing remarks before passage, state Sen. Phil King (R) made clear the map was designed to entrench GOP power, not reflect the will of voters:
The “amazing progress that’s been made in just eight months — all of this will end if the Republicans lose the Congress,” King said after citing a list of policy achievements he attributed to a Republican trifecta. “I’m convinced that if Texas does not take this action, there is an extreme risk that that Republican majority will be lost. If it does, the next two years after the midterm, there will be nothing but inquisitions and impeachments and humiliation for our country.”
Trump has since urged other red states to follow suit, reportedly pressuring lawmakers in Indiana and Missouri to call special legislative sessions aimed at dismantling Democratic districts.
Vice President JD Vance and top aides have been dispatched to Indiana and staffers have phoned into Missouri. Trump is summoning Hoosier Republicans to the White House next week. Both his political operation and right-wing influencers have begun floating primary challenges.
“These folks are not sitting around thinking about redistricting. But in an instant, Trump can prioritize that issue for them and subsequently he can mobilize them on his behalf,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who has worked for House GOP leadership and on presidential campaigns. “I think he recognizes that formidable power and he’s willing to apply it far and wide.”
Meanwhile, the Ohio legislature is about to begin a mandated redistricting session after the 2021 map failed to gain bipartisan support, triggering a 4-year time limit on its use. Republicans there are not merely seeking to preserve their current two-seat overrepresentation; figures like U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno are openly advocating for maps that could hand the party control of two additional districts, resulting in a 12R-3D congressional delegation.
Conduct a mid-decade census
The second prong of Trump’s mid-decade redistricting push is being spearheaded by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who claimed without evidence that the 2020 census undercounted people in Republican states and overcounted people in Democratic states:
"I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but every state that got shortchanged was a Republican state and every state that got more (representatives) was a Democrat state," DeSantis said. "That's just the truth about how that Census was applied."
"It's clear that there's been, for a long time now, a deep state effort to manipulate the census and shift electoral power to blue states, to sanctuary states," [AG] Uthmeier said.
This is, of course, ridiculous. For one, despite the GOP’s chronic issue accurately recalling presidential terms, the 2020 census was conducted when Trump was president. Any undercounts or overcounts that occurred under his administration’s watch were likely influenced by his administration’s policies. Latinos, for example, were undercounted by 5%—likely due to fear of responding after Trump’s push to use the census as a tool for immigration enforcement. Second, overcounts occurred in states that voted for Trump in the 2024 election, such as Utah and Ohio, while undercounts occurred in states that voted for Harris in 2024, notably Illinois. There is no evidence of a systemic effort to unfairly apportion more seats to Democrats than Republicans. That effort is occurring within Republican-controlled states by Republican politicians via gerrymandering.
Regardless, there is very little likelihood that the Trump administration will be able to conduct a census in the next couple of years. Even if Congress passed legislation allowing such an effort, which would be required, the administration does not have the money or manpower that a census demands (the 2020 census cost $13.7 billion and employed 500,000 workers). Instead, it is much more likely that the administration will focus on sabotaging the 2030 census by hollowing out the Census Bureau and fighting again to exclude non-citizens from the count (which would be unconstitutional).
Ban mail-in voting
In an early morning social media post last week, Trump vowed to “lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS” and “Highly ‘Inaccurate,’ Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES.” He went on to say that he would sign an executive order to that effect, but the White House quickly reversed course after apparently realizing executive action would, in fact, have no practical effect. Any federal changes to congressional elections have to come from Congress, as White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged:
“The White House continues to work on this, and when Congress comes back to Washington I’m sure there will be many discussions with our friends on Capitol Hill, and also our friends in state legislatures across the country, to ensure that we’re protecting the integrity of the vote for the American people,” she said.
Still, Trump could pressure GOP-led legislatures to ban mail ballots, institute hand-counting, and enact other measures that restrict ballot access and undermine election security—potentially allowing like-minded officials to swing races in favor of Republican candidates through indirect or direct means. Trump admitted as much on Thursday, writing on Truth Social that his plan would ensure Republicans never lose another election:
But Republicans, there is one thing even better - STOP MAIL-IN VOTING, a total fraud that has no bounds. Also, go to PAPER BALLOTS before it is too late…If we do these TWO things, we will pick up 100 more seats, and the CROOKED game of politics is over. God Bless America!!!
Purge voter rolls and contest results
Over the last few months, the Department of Justice has demanded sensitive voting data, including access to voter rolls, from all 50 states. The content of the letters sent to state officials varies, though most cite the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) and the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) to justify the requests.
Some states, like Alaska, Colorado, and Florida, complied with the DOJ’s demand because their voter rolls are already publicly available. Others, like Illinois, are still determining how to respond. Maine, in particular, stands out for immediately refusing the DOJ’s initial request, prompting a second, more threatening letter in recent days.
“The federal government has overstepped its bounds,” [Maine Secretary of State Shenna] Bellows said. “We will be denying their request for the citizen voter information of every Mainer.” [...] “My answer to the DOJ is, ‘Go jump in the Gulf of Maine.’”
No one knows for sure why the DOJ wants access to every state’s voter rolls. The likeliest explanation is that the administration plans to replicate the North Carolina GOP’s playbook to disenfranchise voters in close races. You may recall: Republican state supreme court candidate Jefferson Griffin challenged the eligibility of 60,000 voters with incomplete voter registration records, such as a missing driver’s license or Social Security number. The voters whose ballots were targeted were disproportionately Black, Democratic, and young. While Griffin ultimately lost the prolonged court battle, he won numerous lower-level victories and, most importantly, significant delays in certification.
Applied nationally, such tactics could, at the least, delay control of Congress for months and, at worst, succeed in flipping races in the Republican candidate’s favor.
Further reading: "She Pushed to Overturn Trump’s Loss in the 2020 Election. Now She’ll Help Oversee U.S. Election Security." Propublica
Deploy federal agents and troops
Perhaps most concerningly, Trump’s ultimate gambit to maintain permanent dictatorial power is already being normalized. The president’s deployment of federal agents—chiefly, ICE—and National Guard troops in Los Angeles and DC is a preview of what he intends to do in Democratic strongholds across the country next year.
Indeed, it is no exaggeration to say that Trump is building a paramilitary force to invade U.S. cities and terrorize their citizens during the midterm elections. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order directing Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to create a "standing" Quick Reaction Force within each state’s National Guard unit "for rapid mobilization…for civil disturbances."
The Secretary of Defense shall immediately begin ensuring that each State’s Army National Guard and Air National Guard are resourced, trained, organized, and available to assist Federal, State, and local law enforcement in quelling civil disturbances and ensuring the public safety and order whenever the circumstances necessitate, as appropriate under law. In coordination with the respective adjutants general, the Secretary of Defense shall designate an appropriate number of each State’s trained National Guard members to be reasonably available for rapid mobilization for such purposes. In addition, the Secretary of Defense shall ensure the availability of a standing National Guard quick reaction force that shall be resourced, trained, and available for rapid nationwide deployment.
This development must be evaluated alongside the massive funding and hiring increase for ICE officers, who have proven to be unbothered by constitutional rights like due process, and the reassignment of federal agents to patrol the streets and set up “papers, please” checkpoints in DC. Taken as a whole, we have nothing else to conclude but that Trump is creating his own personal army to repress disfavored cities and disfavored voters across America.
Former Trump advisor Steve Bannon confirmed the strategy during an episode of his podcast last week, saying “you’re damn right” that “ICE officers [are going to be] near polling places.”
“And the left is sitting there going, well gosh, they take away mail-in ballots, people are going to have to show up, they’re going to have ICE agents around, people are going to be so afraid, intimidated, they’re going to be arrested,” Bannon added. “Well, hey, if you’re an illegal alien you shouldn’t be going to the polls anyway.”
Twice this week alone, Trump has directly stated that the American people desire a dictator.
Monday: “They say, ‘We don’t need him, freedom, freedom! He’s a dictator!’ A lot of people are saying maybe we'd like a dictator.”
Tuesday: "The line is that I'm a dictator, but I stop crime. So a lot of people say, 'You know, if that's the case, I'd rather have a dictator.'"
Where historians mark the precise turning point will be debated. But there can be no doubt: America has crossed into authoritarianism.
Looks like he took a machete to the face. Hmmmmm?
Please Hold for the Next Representative…
Yesterday I tried to log into a company I pay good money to, and they changed their login system without telling me. When I asked for help, they basically shrugged and sent me a picture that might as well have said: “Good luck. Try again. Have a great day.”
That’s exactly what our government feels like right now.
We’ve got someone in power using the military like it’s a personal toy, hunting immigrants, targeting trans and queer people, openly teasing dictatorship. And when I ask, “Did anybody sign up for this? Did anybody approve this?”—the silence is deafening. It’s just please hold for the next representative.
But here’s the thing: I don’t have their numbers. I don’t have their inboxes.
So I’ll say it here: Harris. Pete. Gavin. Obama.
You know who you are. And you know what you’re supposed to be doing.
I don’t need another glossy email asking for $10. I don’t need another carefully worded statement. I need action. I need receipts. I need you to stand in front of this country and say:
“What’s happening is unlike anything we’ve ever been through. And here’s our plan forward.”
Because if you can’t? Then don’t be surprised when people like me stop holding. Don’t be surprised when I go full Southern deranged drag queen on the line demanding to speak to the manager. Because I’m not about to sit here quietly and watch my community be criminalized for existing.
Please hold?
No. Pick up. Do something.
—Louis ✨
#ScriptComs